Predictions

A very mathematically inclined person on the rumors site made these predictions looking at the last two years and using mathematical software. It would be wonderful if his predictions turn out to be accurate, but I'm not getting too excited. A lot would depend on the volume of dossiers that China has to deal with this year compared to in past years. I still thought that it would be fun to add this to the site to look back on in case it ends up being accurate.

Here's his predictions:

For those of you who like curve fits, here is what I have (x-axis is referral date and y-axis is LID, the numerical values are numerical conversions of dates that is done in my graphing software, KaleidaGraph):

Before Sep 05: y = 6.69e+7 + 0.974x, R= 0.999 (original rate, this one is ignored)Sep 05 to Mar 06: y = 1.60e+9 + 0.496x, R= 0.998 (curve 1)Jun 06 to Mar 07: y = 1.66e+9 + 0.476x, R= 0.999 (curve 2)

Calculated

Referral date - - LID - - Referral Month
5/16/2007 - 11/01/2005 - May (Actual)
5/20/2007 - 11/01/2005 - May (Actual)
5/24/2007 - 11/02/2005 - June (Actual)
5/28/2007 - 11/03/2005 - June (Actual)
5/31/2007 - 11/03/2005 - June (Actual)
6/10/2007 - 11/07/2005 - June (Actual)
6/20/2007 - 11/12/2005 - July
6/30/2007 - 11/16/2005 - July
7/10/2007 - 11/21/2005 - August
7/20/2007 - 11/25/2005 - August
7/30/2007 - 11/30/2005 - August
8/09/2007 - 12/04/2005 - September
8/19/2007 - 12/09/2005 - September
9/03/2007 - 12/16/2005 - September
9/13/2007 - 12/20/2005 - October
9/23/2007 - 12/25/2005 - October
10/3/2007 - 12/29/2005 - October