Rumors, rumors, rumors

Well folks, it's that time of the month and the rumors are flying. Referrals are on the way, then they're not, now they are. November 21st is the cutoff? Quite a few agencies are saying this, but how do they know until the referrals are in hand. It is rumored that some agencies have contacts in China who give them inside information. I believe that other agencies make educated guesses. Our agency gives out no information until they know for sure.

I'm taking this all in stride. My original belief is that we'd see referrals on Monday, August 6. I'm still thinking that the 6th is a good date based on prior referral times. As far as the cutoff being November 21st, which would mean that we would finally see our baby's picture, I'm not going to get my hopes up. I'd rather be happily surprised then let down. Until I know for sure, I'm expecting a September referral.

If you're wondering where I'm getting all of the information from, I am part of a forum called China Adopt Talk or as the rest of us call it, the Rumor Queen site. The Rumor Queen site is a site for adoptive parents to share ideas and rumors. Most of the people on the RQ site are adopting from China, but there is a forum for people adopting from other countries. There are over 3,700 members from all over the world.

The pigs get leashes

Gabby and I thought it would be fun to let our guinea pigs have a little more room to run in the backyard. After thinking about how this would work, we decided to get them harnesses and leashes. The first time we put the harnesses on Gabby and I laughed so hard. Now we take them outside and can let them roam a bit without worrying that they can escape. If you want to see pics, take a look on the pet link under Gabby's Stuff.

Adoption thoughts

We've now logged in 20 months of waiting since we sent our paperwork to China. It has been a pretty good month, but where the adoption is concerned it has gone by slowly. We are about two weeks away from finding out if we will get our referral this month. I'd say we have a 50/50 chance of receiving and August referral and a 95% chance of receiving a September referral. Either way, we'll be to China and back before the year is over.

July Referrals

Our agency received referrals for 14 children on July 6. Referrals were for LID dates through 11/14/05. With our LID of 11/21 we could get our referral the first week of August, but I think it's more likely that we'll get it the first week of September.

Nineteen months and counting

We've officially made it to nineteen months since our LID. Wow! Things are moving at a snails pace in the world of China adoptions right now.

The CCAA, China Center of Adoption Affairs, has stated that they expect the wait to grow to three years. I feel for those people behind us in line because it looks like the line is going to be moving slower and slower as time goes on.

Right now, I'm pretty confident in thinking that our referral will come in September, but sure that we'll be referred by October. There are only 13 days before us so an average of five days per month gets us a referral in September. An average of four days get us there in October.

Five Days per month

July 8 - refer through Nov 12
Aug 9 - refer through Nov 17
Sept 10 - refer through Nov 22
Oct 12 - refer through Nov 27

Four Days per month

July 8 - refer through Nov 11
Aug 9 - refer through Nov 15
Sept 10 - refer through Nov 19
Oct 12 - refer through Nov 23

Family Updates

We have good news and bad. The good news is that my brother and sister-in-law are pregnant. After years of trying, they are beginning their second trimester. How exciting.

The bad news is that my other brother had been called up to go to Afghanistan. He's already done a year in Iraq now he's going back to the middle east. We're not sure when he's going, but hopefully not too soon.

Predictions

A very mathematically inclined person on the rumors site made these predictions looking at the last two years and using mathematical software. It would be wonderful if his predictions turn out to be accurate, but I'm not getting too excited. A lot would depend on the volume of dossiers that China has to deal with this year compared to in past years. I still thought that it would be fun to add this to the site to look back on in case it ends up being accurate.

Here's his predictions:

For those of you who like curve fits, here is what I have (x-axis is referral date and y-axis is LID, the numerical values are numerical conversions of dates that is done in my graphing software, KaleidaGraph):

Before Sep 05: y = 6.69e+7 + 0.974x, R= 0.999 (original rate, this one is ignored)Sep 05 to Mar 06: y = 1.60e+9 + 0.496x, R= 0.998 (curve 1)Jun 06 to Mar 07: y = 1.66e+9 + 0.476x, R= 0.999 (curve 2)

Calculated

Referral date - - LID - - Referral Month
5/16/2007 - 11/01/2005 - May (Actual)
5/20/2007 - 11/01/2005 - May (Actual)
5/24/2007 - 11/02/2005 - June (Actual)
5/28/2007 - 11/03/2005 - June (Actual)
5/31/2007 - 11/03/2005 - June (Actual)
6/10/2007 - 11/07/2005 - June (Actual)
6/20/2007 - 11/12/2005 - July
6/30/2007 - 11/16/2005 - July
7/10/2007 - 11/21/2005 - August
7/20/2007 - 11/25/2005 - August
7/30/2007 - 11/30/2005 - August
8/09/2007 - 12/04/2005 - September
8/19/2007 - 12/09/2005 - September
9/03/2007 - 12/16/2005 - September
9/13/2007 - 12/20/2005 - October
9/23/2007 - 12/25/2005 - October
10/3/2007 - 12/29/2005 - October